The January Lie: What Psychology Really Says About New Year Change
Stop, breathe and take a moment this New Year.
It's the first week of January. The kids are back at school, your inbox is overflowing, and there's this nagging voice asking: Why aren't you being more productive? Why haven't you started your transformation yet?
Here's what the research actually tells us: that pressure might be sabotaging your success.
The Trap We All Fall Into
We've been conditioned to believe January 1st is magical. But research from the University of Scranton found that 80% of resolutions fail by February. The "transform yourself" narrative creates what therapists call False Hope Syndrome—unrealistic goals that generate excitement, followed by inevitable failure, shame, and giving up.
A study of 1,066 people found that approach-oriented goals (moving toward something positive) had a 59% success rate, while avoidance goals (stopping "bad" behaviors) only succeeded 47% of the time. But here's what most advice misses: How you relate to yourself during change matters more than willpower.
What Actually Works
A 2023 review found that self-compassion interventions were just as effective as traditional behavior change techniques—but people maintained changes longer. Studies across 3,000+ participants showed self-compassion consistently predicted regular exercise, healthy eating, better stress management, and greater resilience after setbacks.
Self-compassionate people aren't lazy. Research debunks that myth. They're actually more motivated because they see setbacks as feedback, not personal failure.
The Feat Nobody's Talking About
Before piling on new expectations, acknowledge what you just completed: You survived the holidays.
Research shows 44% of women report significantly increased stress during the holiday season. You navigated family dynamics, financial pressure, decision fatigue, and the invisible labor of creating "magic" for everyone else.
Your prefrontal cortex has been in overdrive. Neuroscience research shows prolonged stress reduces memory formation and slows new brain cell production. Post-holiday rest isn't self-indulgent; it's neurologically necessary. Plus, you're experiencing a dopamine crash—low mood and fatigue are physiology, not personal failing.
Translation: You're not failing January. Your nervous system is recovering from an unacknowledged marathon.
Taking time for rest and recovery after the holiday season
What to Do Instead
Trade the Commander for the Friend
Instead of "How can I make myself do this?" ask "What would help me move toward this naturally?" When you miss a workout, try: "I'm frustrated, but I'm trying my best with the energy I have. What would be kind right now?"
Ease In, Don't Explode In
Research is clear: small, incremental changes succeed more than dramatic overhauls. It takes an average of 66 days for behaviors to become automatic. Start gently in January; by March you'll have sustainable habits, not abandoned resolutions.
Give Yourself Recovery Time
Reestablish routines gradually. Studies show having something to look forward to improves mood and aids stress recovery more than forcing immediate high achievement.
The Bottom Line
You don't need a "new you" in January. You need to treat yourself with kindness while adjusting back to life. The changes you want are still possible—they're just more likely to happen if you approach yourself as a trusted friend, not a commander demanding obedience.
Health coaching conversation about sustainable wellness goals
Need Support Creating Change That Actually Lasts?
If you're thinking, "This makes sense, but I'm not sure how to actually do it," you're not alone. As a Board-Certified Health & Wellness Coach, I work with women who are tired of the all-or-nothing approach and ready for something sustainable.
Together, we identify realistic goals, navigate change with self-compassion, and build habits that last beyond February.
Book a free discovery call to explore what this could look like for you—without the January pressure, without the transformation trap, and with a whole lot more kindness.
Warmly,
Sally
Key References:
Biber & Ellis (2019). Self-compassion and health behavior regulation. Journal of Health Psychology
Oscarsson et al. (2020). New Year's resolutions study. PLoS ONE
Lally et al. (2010). Habit formation research. European Journal of Social Psychology